Fred Hu's Conversation with Kishore Mahbubani: History Takes a Sharp Turn, Global Politics at a Pivotal Moment

Foreword:

 

During a fireside chat at the firm’s AGM, Dr. Fred Hu, founder of Primavera, engaged in an in-depth conversation with Professor Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow at National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute, during which they discussed geopolitics, ASEAN and China’s role in global affairs.

Professor Mahbubani is a seasoned diplomat from Singapore, having served as the Ambassador to the United Nations, President of the UN Security Council, and the inaugural Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. This year, he published his highly acclaimed memoir, Living the Asian Century: An Undiplomatic Memoir, which touches on many of the themes discussed in this fireside chat.

Professor Mahbubani believes that in the context of U.S.-China competition, global geopolitics is approaching a “Hairpin Bend,” a nearly 180-degree turn akin to those in racetracks, with changes potentially more dramatic than any seen in the past 3,000 years of human history. The world is transitioning into an era characterized by “3Ms”—multi-civilizational, multi-polar, and multilateral dynamics.

In Mahbubani’s view, ASEAN is the world’s best laboratory for diverse civilizations and a key emerging force in transforming the global order. Its economic growth, political influence, and diversity make it a crucial player in international affairs, though its significance remains underappreciated around the world. The future performance of global powers will test the wisdom of their leaders, with all answers rooted in the seeds being planted today.

 

Below is based on the transcript of the conversation between Dr. Fred Hu and Professor Kishore Mahbubani from the fireside discussion:

 

Fred:

I am delighted to have my old friend and mentor, Professor Kishore Mahbubani. He is a rock star in the Asia-Pacific region, also in high demand in international conferences. Many political and business leaders are eager to engage with him. Therefore, I will allocate some time today for the audience to ask questions.

Professor Mahbubani is a highly accomplished diplomat from Singapore, having served as the Ambassador to the United Nations, President of the UN Security Council, and the inaugural Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore. Additionally, he is a prolific author, having published numerous acclaimed books. I thoroughly enjoy his writings and am honored that he always shares his works with me among his first readers.

I will start with U.S.-China relations, which have undeniably deteriorated in recent years. The decline can be traced back to President Trump’s administration, which launched a trade war as part of its strategy to “Make America Great Again.” Subsequently, Biden has maintained the same tough stance but expanded the focus beyond trade to include technology, finance, military, and geopolitics, resulting in full-spectrum competition.

Given your intimate knowledge of geopolitics and your interactions with top diplomats around the world, how do you view the current U.S.-China relationship? What are the root causes of the tension? With the upcoming November elections, how do you foresee this relationship evolving over the next couple of years?

 

Kishore:

The venue today overlooks the Singapore F1 Grand Prix circuit. If you turn around, you can see the nearly 180-degree turn known as the Hairpin Bend, which is the most challenging part of the track.

I believe that in the next 10-20 years, history will enter a Hairpin Bend. Those who accelerate into a Hairpin bend are heading towards disaster, while those who slow down and understand the challenges ahead will navigate the turn successfully.

Before answering your question, I want to emphasize that the future of U.S.-China relations largely depends on the global context. We are entering a period of significant change—greater than anything seen in the past 3,000 years. Countries that recognize and adapt to these changes will thrive, while those that do not will struggle.

I describe this emerging world as a new “3M world”—multi-civilizational, multi-polar, and multilateral.

The first M, multi-civilizational, is where the concept of the Hairpin Bend comes in. For the past 200 years, only one civilization has dominated—the Western civilization. I believe the era of Western civilization’s dominance in world history is ending, and we are witnessing the rise of other civilizations, such as the Chinese, Indian, and Islamic civilizations. The return of these civilizations is creating a new texture in global dynamics that must be navigated.

In considering the U.S.-China relationship, the first question to ask is which of these two countries is better prepared for a multi-civilizational world.

The second M is multi-polar, which differs from the past Cold War dynamics of one or two superpowers. After the Cold War, the world became unipolar, but now it is multi-polar, with many middle powers generating significant influence. For example, when the West imposed sanctions on Russia after it invaded Ukraine, the expectation was that the world would align with these sanctions, but 85% of the global population did not join in these sanctions, indicating that countries are no longer bound to follow Western directives.

Addressing global challenges—like climate change, pandemics, and financial crises—requires multilateral solutions. We must consider whether the United States or China is more aligned with this multilateral approach.

One certainty remains: regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is elected, pressure on China will persist. This is inevitable because there is a deeply held conviction in Washington, D.C., that the U.S. has about ten years to prevent China from becoming No.1. Even amid a deeply divided society, both Democrats and Republicans agree on one thing: it is time to confront China.

Therefore, we need to realize that humanity may be facing the most challenging geopolitical competition in history over the next decade.

 

Fred:

I give a lot of credit to the US’s decisive contributions after World War II to building the global institutions, such as IMF, World Bank, WTO and so on.

But over the last couple of years, we’ve seen US actually doing a lot of damage to those institutions, with trade war, withdrawal from Paris Agreement, and so on.

Peace and prosperity of the world to a large degree depends on how China handles the rivalry, but also to a significant degree on other players like you mentioned, India, Middle East, ASEAN and Africa, how they’re going to interact with both US and China.

So how can the rest of the world and multilateral institutions work together to preserve the values and the benefits of multilateralism?

 

Kishore:

Well, that’s a good question.

Basically, to understand multilateralism, you’ve got to understand why multilateralism is necessary.

And the best way to describe how the human condition has changed is to use a boat analogy.

In the past, when 8 billion people lived in 193 separate countries, it was as though they were living 193 separate boats. Each country had a boat of its own. So, if one boat caught COVID, no other boat would catch COVID.

But the world has shrunk. 8 billion people no longer live in 193 separate boats, but in 193 separate cabins on the same boat. When one cabin catches COVID, all the cabins catch COVID. We saw that. If the human species were intelligent, we would say, “What’s the point of saving my cabin if the boat is sinking?”

The only way for us to solve global problems such as climate change is for the global community to come together. But to come together, we need a new consensus. Over the next 10 to 20 years, you will find that ASEAN, Middle East, Europe, Africa, Latin America—each of these regions is going to become more assertive and more demanding.

And one place where they’re going to become more demanding is in multilateral organizations. Therefore, the role of multilateral organizations will become stronger.

 

Fred:

Definitely. History tells us that sovereign nations need to pursue their own interests while also relying on shared interests. Multilateral organizations are essential for human welfare and a better life.

Next, I want to talk about the Asia-Pacific region. Today, we are standing in a key country of this region—Singapore. In your book, you call for a renewed understanding of ASEAN’s role under the geopolitical and economic clouds. The ASEAN region holds a significant position in the current global economy, politics, and technological innovation. Both China and the United States maintain close economic cooperation and trade relations with ASEAN. Many entrepreneurs we invest in have also set up their headquarters in Singapore, thereby establishing a presence across Southeast Asia, which shows the deepened integration of ASEAN.

What role will ASEAN play in global stability, and how can investors seize opportunities in the complex, diverse, and vibrant Southeast Asia?

 

Kishore:

I’m glad you raised the issue of ASEAN, because if there’s one regional organization that all of you should get to know better, it’s ASEAN. ASEAN is going to become a truly sunrise organization over the next 20-30 years, for several reasons.

Firstly, in the year 2000, Japan’s GDP was eight times bigger than ASEAN’s. 24 years later, Japan’s GDP is now only 1.3 times that of ASEAN, and by 2030, ASEAN is expected to surpass Japan. Today, ASEAN’s contribution to global economic growth exceeds that of the EU. So, ASEAN is one of these miraculous organizations that is hugely underestimated.

But ASEAN’s importance also extends beyond the economic realm to the first “M” I mentioned, “multi-civilizational”. To prepare for the multi-civilizational world, we need a multi-civilizational laboratory, and the best multi-civilizational laboratory in the world is ASEAN.

Among ASEAN’s 700 million people, there are 250 million Muslims, 150 million Christians, and 150 million Buddhists—which includes both Mahayana and Hinayana Buddhists—as well as Taoists, Confucianists, Hindus, and many Communists.

Can you find any other region that is so diverse? Africa? Latin America? The EU? ASEAN is truly unique, and organizations that engage with ASEAN are betting on the future.

I believe that betting on ASEAN is a very wise investment for China. In 2000, trade between China and ASEAN was only US$40 billion. By 2022, this figure had nearly reached US$1 trillion.

 

Fred:
Yeah, China is the largest trading partner to ASEAN.

 

Kishore:

That’s right. At the same time, there is more American investment in ASEAN than there is in China, Japan, South Korea, India combined.

Southeast Asia is a region to watch closely due to its considerable geopolitical wisdom. This region has mastered the art of navigating a multipolar world and managing internal and external diversity.

 

Fred:

Interesting.

An old friend of mine was a former President of the European Union, and he complained to me about how difficult it was to reach a consensus among different members. But as you mentioned, ASEAN members are even more diverse, yet they manage to cooperate and achieve mutual benefits.

Moreover, over the past two decades, ASEAN has maintained long-term peace and stability, and it has a demographic advantage. So, I am actually very optimistic about ASEAN’s economic prospects.

Let’s shift our focus to Singapore. I recall having a small group conversation about Singapore’s future with former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew. He said: “To some extent, we hope to become the Switzerland of Asia.”

Despite the numerous geopolitical conflicts around the world, Singapore has managed to position itself favorably, playing a unique role as a bridge between the East and the West, much like the Chinese saying, “four ounces can move a thousand catties.” As a diplomat, why do you think Singapore has been able to establish such influence?

 

Kishore:

Before I address your point about Singapore, let’s discuss the comparison between the European Union and ASEAN. A simple rule of geopolitics is that wars reflect geopolitical incompetence, while peace reflects geopolitical competence.

The European Union had several opportunities to prevent the war in Ukraine but failed to do so, which led to the painful war going on. Moreover, today you will notice that if you talk to young people in the EU, most of them are depressed about the future. Conversely, young people in Southeast Asia, such as in Indonesia, are hopeful and energized for the future, despite having much lower per capita incomes than their European counterparts.

Singapore has played a crucial role in this context.

The magic of Singapore lies in its profound understanding of ASEAN. To understand this region, you have to understand the rich and complex history of the last thousand years. And if you don’t understand that complex history of the past thousand years, you will not know which buttons to push in different societies.

Building trust among historically distrustful communities is particularly challenging.

53 years ago, when I attended my first ASEAN meeting in 1971, the room was drowning in distrust. Indonesia and Malaysia had territorial disputes, Malaysia and Singapore had just separated, and the Philippines claimed part of Malaysia, among other issues.

Yet, over the past 50 years, ASEAN has remarkably overcome this distrust and achieved cooperation.

This success is inseparable from Singapore, under the extraordinary leadership of Lee Kuan Yew, who managed to earn the trust of all leaders in the region. Today’s peace and stability in Southeast Asia stem from the seeds that Singapore sowed more than 30 years ago.

 

Fred:

That was excellent. Before we move on to the Q&A session, I have one last question. As a seasoned diplomat, it there any interesting episode or story to share?

 

Kishore:
Let me share a story from 1999. I was in Saint Petersburg, Russia, attending a conference with notable figures including George H.W. Bush, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Samuel Huntington.

During the conference, the famous British broadcaster David Frost interviewed President Bush and asked him which world leader had impressed him the most.

Without hesitation, Bush responded, “Lee Kuan Yew.” Considering Bush’s extensive diplomatic experience and the many influential leaders whom he had met around the globe, it was amazing that the one who impressed him the most was Lee Kuan Yew.

Of course, the story of Singapore is not solely about Lee Kuan Yew. Other leaders played significant roles as well. I hope those who are interested will read my memoir, in which I detail these contributions and the collective efforts that shaped Singapore’s development.